News & Insights

Insurance market makes World Cup final pick

Published 13 July 2018

It has been so far, so good for the Lloyd’s of London predictions for the 2018 World Cup, with pre-tournament favourite France making the final to face surprise package Croatia. Could a shock be in store this Sunday? According to Lloyd’s of London’s predictive model, don’t count on it.

Before the tournament, Croatia ranked 9th in terms of their sides’ total insurable value, which stood at $837 million (£468.1m).

Football fieldSandwiched in the rankings between Switzerland and Portugal, Croatia’s average player value stands at $28 million (£15.6m) as they look to better their knock-out at the group stages in 2014 with their first ever World Cup win.

France, on the other hand, led the way before the tournament and continue to do so with a total insurable value of $2.5 billion (£1.43bn) and an average player value of $83 million (£46.7m) – which could have risen thanks to stand-out performances by youngster Kylian Mbappe.

The Lloyd’s model, which was compiled by the insurance market and the Centre for Economics and Business Research (Cebr), predicted a France vs England final, which may have been scoffed at before the tournament, but England fell one game short of their first major tournament final since 1966.

Up to the quarter final stage, the Lloyd’s model had a 64% success rate with its predictions. Croatia’s rise to the final will hamper that percentage but predicting half of the finalists is not a bad result.

Can France fulfill their destiny as pre-tournament favourites and take home the trophy or can Croatia spring the mother of all surprises? Only time will tell.

Gallagher is the official insurance broker of Football Federation Australia.

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